Avdeevka Shelling: Who Did It? The Real Story

Avdeevka is a town of around 35,000, pre-war population, held by Ukrainian forces, some 5km northwest of the city of Donetsk (city limits), held by DPR.

Yesterday, Ukrainian, and pro-Ukrainian media started making a massive storm about it having been shelled ‘by separatist forces’, with 4 civilians killed. Just some sources here –

http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/3850468-polytsyia-pokazala-foto-obstreliannoi-avdeevky

http://fakty.ictv.ua/ru/ukraine/20170513-avdiyivka-nakryta-vognem-bojovykiv-bagato-zagyblyh/

http://gordonua.com/news/war/v-avdeevke-v-rezultate-obstrela-boevikov-pogibli-chetyre-mestnyh-zhitelya-zhebrivskiy-188032.html

On the evening of Eurovision, it generated mass attention, with Ukraine’s president Poroshenko loudly then announcing that he was cancelling his visit to the song contest final in Kiev, due to the shelling – which made international news –

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-politics/2227433-president-poroshenko-not-to-attend-esc-grand-final-due-to-shelling-of-avdiivka.html

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201705141053593390-poroshenko-skips-eurovision/

http://gordonua.com/news/politics/poroshenko-evrovidenie-omrachilo-uzhasnoe-ubiystvo-mirnyh-zhiteley-avdeevki-no-eto-cena-kotoruyu-platyat-ukraincy-za-rossiyskuyu-agressiyu-188091.html

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/poroshenko-otmenil-poseshchenie-finala-evrovideniya-1494702759.html

The Donetsk People’s Republic responded today:

“It is another provocation ordered by the commander of the Donetsk operations and tactical group with involvement of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade, the Right Sector (a far right group banned in Russia), Ukraine’s National Guard along with foreign media outlets in the run-up to the Minsk talks,” the Donetsk news agency quoted the spokesperson as saying.

The DPR explained how the provocation was staged.

“The 72nd brigade opens fire on the DPR position, whereas the Right Sector is shelling Avdeyevka and foreign media are recording,” he said.

Meanwhile, well-known blogger Colonel Cassad analysed the photos of the shelling, concluding that it had actually come from the Ukraine-held settlement of Vodyane, around 5km from Avdeevka –

Now of course, shelling damage can be analysed in different ways, to suit different needs. So, a wider context must also be assessed. Who did this shelling suit?

The DPR had just enjoyed perhaps one of the most successful, high-profile weeks of their 3-year existence, with both a mass Victory Day celebration, and a huge Republic Day festival.  So, to believe it’s the Donetsk People’s Republic, you have to believe that, off the back of this, they’ve decided to shell a civilian area of Avdeevka, full well knowing how much they would be hammered in the media for that.

There have been no recent DPR attempts to capture the town of Adveevka, nor any sign that that’s the case. So why would they, as Ukraine wants us to believe, arbitrarily decide to shell the settlement, with the predictable, and of course tragic, loss of life – 4 deaths reported?

Meanwhile, on the Ukraine side, it’s a different story. Poroshenko can take the moral high ground by not attending Eurovision, due to his loudly-announced ‘grief’. Not attending a Eurovision it was pretty clear something embarrassing was going to happen at, and it duly did, with Ukrainian prankster Vitaliy Sedyuk mounting the stage to bear his bottom. 

There’s also the bonus for Ukraine of, in a week when all events in the DPR had passed off successfully, without a hitch, another opportunity to attack the ‘evil separatists’, Putin, and so on. 

And, be sure, Ukraine’s PR-machine – which has seen Poroshenko turn up to UN Meetings, World Economic Forums, and more, bearing items of wreckage he claims were the result of ‘separatist, Russian-backed shelling‘, etc – will only just be starting on this.

So, if you ask the question, who gains from the shelling of Avdeevka, there’s only one answer, Ukraine. As to who did it, well, it’s not too much of a leap to come to that conclusion.

9 thoughts on “Avdeevka Shelling: Who Did It? The Real Story”

  1. I think your analysis is correct there. There’s one curious thing though, which is that the hostilities against DNR/LNR are not on a scale to actually make advances but only to make propaganda headlines such as this (and the previous Avdeevka some months back). I am guessing the background situation is that Nato and co have more or less given up on giving sufficient support for any plans to “retake” the east, due to being too much burden, too much persistent opposition from the population, plus the proximity of Russia which could potentially respond. Oh, and too much adverse “fake news” counterpublicity from youtubers including you and Patrick!
    I suspect it’s a bit like ww2 Barbarossa, gambling on a first strike sufficient success and failing.

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  2. This is not even very clever. Its a false flag to generate publicity when the world (or some board housewives are watching the stupid Eurovision) Is taking some notice of the bankrupt Nazi Ukraine. Try again Porky not good enough.

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  3. Given the fact that Kyiv regularly repoprts the dissident forces to be ‘shelling themselves’ to gain sympathy, isit any wonder that – with Eurovision wrapping-up and a ‘world audience watching’ – it does the same thing? After all the disphonic tales of Euro-revelling in Kyiv with a Putinic invasion underway two hours east haven’t been missed in ‘the saga’.

    One would think they might have ‘nailed’ 70 or 80 like the Syrian gassers.

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  4. More “false flag” B.S. from Poroshenko & Co. No surprise there.
    “Friendly Fire” incidents are tragic when they’re accidental, criminal when they’re not…
    Perhaps he’ll be awarded an all expense paid trip to The Hague one of these days, with the appropriate accommodations. No wonder Yatsenyuk decided to cut and run!

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    1. “Perhaps he’ll be awarded an all expense paid trip to The Hague one of these days”
      More likely a nobel peace prize jointly with funders and leaders of the maidan gangs. They do belong with the company of Obomber and Killssinger.

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